2012 calculus!!

Fact:
The country would go to the 2012 general elections with the regional calculus:the county effect would take effect in 2017 and mature in 2022.This is the real politiques on the ground


dzombombaru

---

From: Samuel Owino <otiso.sam@gmail.com>
To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com; NVK-M MAGEUZI <NVK-Mageuzi@yahoogroups.com>; alai.robert@gmail.com; africa-oped@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wed, August 18, 2010 2:19:21 PM
Subject: AS IT IS PEOPLE, ONLY DEATH STANDS BETWEEN AMOLLO CHUNY PINY AND THE PRESIDENCY IN KENYA!!!

People,

I rarely comment on issues in this forum though am a great fun, on this succession one however, I think most peole  have yet to realise we have a totally different constitution and with it comes a new thinking and ways of doing things. As it is now your Tribe Cannot TAKE YOU TO STATEHOUSE AND THAT WHY...

With the new constitution, none of these self seekers like Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto can make it.

we are not talking provinces now, we are talking counties dude.And you must have gannered the majority votes in the election, that 50+ 1 of votes cast (NOT REGISTERED) nad twenty five percent in more that half of the 47 counties. My little mathematics tells me more that half will 24 COUNTIES.

Without the PMs post, you can only managed a maximum of 2Ks

SCENARIO 1: UHURU & KALONZO

CENTRAL HAS 5 COUNTIES + MERU +NAKURU+LAIKIPIA =8
(tell me whre alse Uhuru can get 25%)

KALONZO HAS 3 COUNTIES(UKAMBANI COUNTIES WHICH ARE NOT SOLIDLY UNDER KAMILIONZO)
The only other place you can sell Kalonzo to get 25% is maybe Kwale because of the many Kambas there.

- Remember Mama Ngilu is there
- Musila and Kalonzo are not in good terms

THIS ALLIANCE IS DOMMED TO FAIL (VOTES FROM ONLY 12 COUNTIES)


SCENARIO 2: UHURU & RUTO
CENTRAL HAS 5 COUNTIES + MERU +NAKURU+LAIKIPIA =8
(tell me whre alse Uhuru can get 25%)

RUTO KALENJIN (NOT RIFT VALLEY AS THEY MAKE AS WANT TO THINK) HAS 6 COUNTIES
(Where else would Ruto get 25%, The Kales with their war like tendencies do not even live in Diaspora)
these are 14 counties.

- Assumption is that Ocampo comes in 2090 like Ruto prophesied
- We also assumme that 100% Kikuyus forget how their Kin were killed and displaced

THIS WONT GO ANYWHERE

SCENARIO 3: KALONZO & RUTO
KALONZO HAS 3 COUNTIES(UKAMBANI COUNTIES WHICH ARE NOT SOLIDLY UNDER KAMILIONZO)
The only other place you can sell Kalonzo to get 25% is maybe Kwale because of the many Kambas there.

- Remember Mama Ngilu is there
- Musila and Kalonzo are not in good terms

RUTO KALENJIN (NOT RIFT VALLEY AS THEY MAKE AS WANT TO THINK) HAS 6 COUNTIES
(Where else would Ruto get 25%, The Kales with their war like tendencies do not even live in Diaspora)


- Assumption is that Ocampo comes in 2090 like Ruto prophesied
- We also assumme that 100% Kikuyus forget how their Kin were killed and displaced

ONLY 9 COUNTIES
TERRIBLE FAIL

SCENARIO 3: KALONZO, RUTO, UHURU(most unlikely- you can only have two Ks)
KALONZO HAS 3 COUNTIES(UKAMBANI COUNTIES WHICH ARE NOT SOLIDLY UNDER KAMILIONZO)
The only other place you can sell Kalonzo to get 25% is maybe Kwale because of the many Kambas there.

- Remember Mama Ngilu is there
- Musila and Kalonzo are not in good terms

RUTO KALENJIN (NOT RIFT VALLEY AS THEY MAKE AS WANT TO THINK) HAS 6 COUNTIES
(Where else would Ruto get 25%, The Kales with their war like tendencies do not even live in Diaspora)

CENTRAL HAS 5 COUNTIES + MERU +NAKURU+LAIKIPIA =8
(tell me whre alse Uhuru can get 25%)

ONLY 17 COUNTIES
- Assume Ocampo does not come (But you and I know he is very likely to come than not)for RUTO &UHURU
- Kalonzo cannot go and tell Kaos, he is going to be somebodies running mate now that alijikuta katikati
- Ruto cannot tell Kales, he is supporting somebody not after apologising for misleading and isolating the community twice by supporting UHURU2002 and RAILA 2007

which leads me to the third most likely going to happen scenario

RAILA & MUDAVADI

RAILA - NYANZA HAS 6 + NAIROBI +COAST 6+ NE 4 + tURKANA, POKOT,SAMBURU,NAROK,KAJIADO,ISIOLO = 24

MUDAVADI - WESTERN 4 +TRANSNZOIA =5

Tell me who wins

- We are assuming Wuod Nyalego would not charm the house of Mumbi to support him this time. (Indication are they are warming up to him)
- The Hague takes UHURU AND RUTO
- KIBAKI DOES NOT SAY KALONZO TOSHA (he will most likely not)
- Remember the power if incumbency
- The mobilisation power
- The international network (OBAMA lipigia mimi simu mwenyewe usiku.., he was the fist leader to visit 10Dawning street)
- Remember south sudan will be a country then, and most our brothers

AS IT IS GENTLEMEN, ONLY DEATH STANDS BETWEEN WUOD AJUMA AND THE PRESIDENCY IN KENYA!!!

GO AHEAD, LINCH ME!!!!!!!!!!!

And when death comes, die it!!

Sam

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