--Kuria,Whoever did thos projected on Presidential votes based on Railas and Kibakis votes for 2007. Now, if these figures are based on how people voted for the 2, isn't it foolhardy to use the same projections of KATIBA on which the two are on the same side?Secondly, who are they "competing" against who was also on the ballot in 2007 for which they project the NO vote? Even Kalonzos figures go into the basket if Prsidential voting patern is the indicator here.However, this idle mind forgot that KATIBA is the issue here, not Kibaki or Raila, tells you how idle minds can be cluoded to see things clearly.Most of those who were fronting Chungwa are now with most of those who fronted banana The figures for orange and banana for 2005 referendum shoud thus give the greatest boost for GREENS.
I thank this person who sent Omtatah to post these figures for he just confirmed that KATIBA imepita, going by 2005 referendum and 2007 elections.
Simple maths, add, orange and banana votes for 2005 plus Kibaki's and Raila's kura for 2007 and we are home and dry.!!!!
Otieno Sungu
From: Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com>
To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com
Sent: Fri, July 30, 2010 1:34:57 AM
Subject: Re: Confidential Referendum Projections
Bwana Omtatah,
If the figures are confidential, why do you have them? The person who cooked them did a shoddy job. You can see RV figures are cooked
to make sound as if Ruto has 80% of the support. You or whoever cooked them forgot that Eldoret North does not constituite 80% of RV votes. Soother areas outside Rutoland are red? When did NO side get average of 40-80% in various areas?If your side get that close, even if YES wins, then those Opinion Pollsters will close shop. For now I can only wish you good dreams.On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 5:05 AM, Okiya Omtatah Okoiti <omtatah@yahoo.com> wrote:
--
2005 Referendum
2007 Presidential Elections
2010 Referendum Projections based on Voter Patterns
Province
Registered Voters
Turnout %
Registered Voters
Turnout %
Registered Voters
Assuming 60% Turnout
YES:NO RATIO
YES
NO
NAIROBI
961,295
38.80%
1,275,021
51.50%
1,306,345
783,807
60:40
470,284
313,523
COAST
967,518
34.50%
1,045,629
57.00%
992,323
595,394
60:40
357,236
238,158
NORTH EASTERN
237,321
21.70%
315,664
61.30%
232,099
139,259
70:30
97,482
41,778
EASTERN
1,977,480
49.60%
2,516,998
65.90%
2,028,864
1,217,318
30:70
365,196
852,123
CENTRAL
1,795,277
61.10%
2,186,315
82.10%
1,952,537
1,171,522
60:40
702,913
468,609
RIFT VALLEY
2,668,981
60.50%
3,358,285
72.80%
3,074,736
1,844,842
20:80
368,968
1,475,873
WESTERN
1,322,604
45.30%
1,564,854
62.00%
1,357,802
814,681
70:30
570,277
244,404
NYANZA
1,664,401
56.30%
2,041,686
76.20%
1,711,745
1,027,047
80:20
821,638
205,409
TOTALS
11,594,877
52.40%
14,304,452
69.00%
12,656,451
7,593,871
49.4:50.6
3,753,994
3,839,877
Confidential and for Authorised Internal Use Only
Best for YES: 49.4% Worst for NO: 50.6%
HISTORICAL DATA USED:
2005 Referendum Results
Option
Number of votes
Percentage
There were 11,595,201 registered voters in 2005
Yes
2,578,831
41.88%
6,158,072 registered voters cast their votes
No
3,579,241
58.12%
5,437,129 voters did not vote in 2005.
Total
6,158,072
100.00%
This was equivalent to 53% voting and 47% not voting
Province
Yes Votes
Yes %
No Votes
No %
Registered Voters
Turnout
%
Central
1,023,219
93.20%
74,394
6.80%
1,795,277
1,097,613
61.10%
Coast
64,432
19.30%
269,655
80.70%
967,518
334,087
34.50%
Eastern
485,282
49.50%
494,624
50.50%
1,977,480
979,906
49.60%
Nairobi
161,344
43.20%
212,070
56.80%
961,295
373,414
38.80%
North Eastern
12,401
24.10%
39,028
75.90%
237,321
51,429
21.70%
Nyanza
114,077
12.20%
822,188
87.80%
1,664,401
936,265
56.30%
Rift Valley
395,943
24.50%
1,218,805
75.50%
2,668,981
1,614,748
60.50%
Western
240,582
40.20%
358,343
59.80%
1,322,604
598,925
45.30%
Total
2,532,918
41.70%
3,548,477
58.30%
11,594,877
6,081,395
52.40%
Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya
Provincial Results of 2007 Presidential Elections
Province
Kibaki
%
Odinga
%
Kalonzo
%
Others
%
Votes Cast
Registered Voters
NAIROBI
313,478
47.70%
288,922
44.00%
52,974
8.10%
1,845
0.30%
657,219
1,275,021
COAST
197,354
33.10%
353,773
59.40%
38,881
6.50%
5,909
1.00%
595,917
1,045,629
NORTH EASTERN
97,263
50.30%
91,440
47.20%
4,498
2.30%
333
0.20%
193,534
315,664
EASTERN
835,481
50.40%
83,575
5.00%
726,782
43.80%
13,229
0.80%
1,659,067
2,516,998
CENTRAL
1,741,086
97.00%
34,046
1.90%
11,702
0.70%
7,215
0.40%
1,794,049
2,186,315
RIFT VALLEY
818,445
33.50%
1,580,880
64.60%
33,863
1.40%
12,300
0.50%
2,445,488
3,358,285
WESTERN
312,300
32.20%
639,246
65.90%
6,729
0.70%
11,417
1.20%
969,692
1,564,854
NYANZA
262,627
16.90%
1,280,978
82.40%
4,470
0.30%
7,160
0.50%
1,555,235
2,041,686
TOTALS
4,578,034
46.40%
4,352,860
44.10%
879,899
8.90%
59,408
0.60%
9,870,201
14,304,452
Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya
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