But Uhuru also cannot win the Presidency. He can get over 80 per cent central, a bit of Coast, then? Also Kenyans, lets accept our weakness. I doubt that given our tribal inclinations, Kenyans are ready for another Kikuyu Presidency.
Ruto is a no-sell anywhere outside Rift Valley.
I do not see Raila and Ruto coming together again.
The winning formula would be Raila for Prezzo and Uhuru for VP. The winning formula!
Muntu
I saw this somewhere:
SCENARIO 1: RAILA'S CHANCES
1. Uhuru will not support Raila for president
2. Ruto will not support Raila for president
3. Kalonzo will not support Raila for president
Why?
-All of them do not trust Raila.
-They do not know what Raila will do with them if he comes to power
-Uhuru's tribe and Raila's tribe are suspiscious of each other
-Ruto has been betrayed by Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political wooes
RAILA THEREFORE LOOSES
SCENARIO 2: RUTO'S CHANCES
1. Uhuru race will not fully support Ruto for president
2. Raila will not support Ruto for president
3. Kalonzo will partially support Ruto for president
Why?
-Kikuyus hate what Ruto did to them during 2007 elections
-Luos will not vote for Ruto as long as Raila is contesting
-Musyoka still considers Ruto his junior and expect Ruto to let him be the candidate
RUTO THEREFORE LOOSES
SCENARIO 3: KALONZO'S CHANCES
1. Kalonzo is simply not acceptable to any other tribe as a serious candidate. He simply does not have a backbone hence other tribes will ignore him except kambas.
Why?
-He betrayed Kenyans in 2007 elections
-Did not take a stand in the referendum
-His own tribe is not solidly behind him
KALONZO THEREFORE LOOSES MISERABLY
SCENARIO 4: UHURU'S CHANCES
1. Ruto will support Uhuru for president if he is promised vice presidency
2. Raila will not support Uhuru for president whatsoever
3. Kalonzo will support Uhuru for president to neutralize Raila
Why?
-Uhuru's mild mannerism makes him trustworthy
-Moi likes Uhuru and hence may convince both Kalonzo and Ruto to support Uhuru
-Almost 100% Kikuyus will vote for Uhuru
-Ruto has no choice but to back Uhuru to neutralize Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political wooes and will do this to still teach Raila a lesson
-Kibaki will not be a factor if Uhuru is the presidential candidate. Infact he will throw his weight behind Uhuru.
-Mungiki will support Uhuru
UHURU THEREFORE WINS
HOW CAN RAILA WIN?
Go back to Ruto because he will never get Uhuru or Kalonzo unless there is a big fall out between Uhuru and Kalonzo.
Remember the votes are in
-Nyanza
-Central
-Rift Valley
-Western
-Eastern
-Kenyan Diaspora (3 Million sure votes)
Dr. Barack Otieno Abonyo
Associate Professor of Pharmacology
College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences
Florida A and M University
1415 Martin Luther King Dr.
Tallahassee Fl, 32304
Tel:850-561-2553
850-339-4806
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