Confidential Referendum Projections

	2005 Referendum		2007 Presidential Elections		2010 Referendum Projections based on Voter Patterns
Province	Registered Voters	Turnout %	Registered Voters	Turnout %	Registered Voters	Assuming 60% Turnout	YES:NO RATIO	YES	NO
NAIROBI	961,295	38.80%	1,275,021	51.50%	1,306,345	783,807	60:40	470,284	313,523
COAST	967,518	34.50%	1,045,629	57.00%	992,323	595,394	60:40	357,236	238,158
NORTH EASTERN	237,321	21.70%	315,664	61.30%	232,099	139,259	70:30	97,482	41,778
EASTERN	1,977,480	49.60%	2,516,998	65.90%	2,028,864	1,217,318	30:70	365,196	852,123
CENTRAL	1,795,277	61.10%	2,186,315	82.10%	1,952,537	1,171,522	60:40	702,913	468,609
RIFT VALLEY	2,668,981	60.50%	3,358,285	72.80%	3,074,736	1,844,842	20:80	368,968	1,475,873
WESTERN	1,322,604	45.30%	1,564,854	62.00%	1,357,802	814,681	70:30	570,277	244,404
NYANZA	1,664,401	56.30%	2,041,686	76.20%	1,711,745	1,027,047	80:20	821,638	205,409
TOTALS	11,594,877	52.40%	14,304,452	69.00%	12,656,451	7,593,871	49.4:50.6	3,753,994	3,839,877
Confidential and for Authorised Internal Use Only

Best for YES: 49.4%     Worst for NO: 50.6%

HISTORICAL DATA USED:

2005 Referendum Results
Option	Number of votes	Percentage		There were 11,595,201 registered voters in 2005
Yes	2,578,831	41.88%		6,158,072 registered voters cast their votes
No	3,579,241	58.12%		5,437,129 voters did not vote in 2005.
Total	6,158,072	100.00%		This was equivalent to 53% voting and 47% not voting
Province	Yes Votes	Yes %	No Votes	No %	Registered Voters	Turnout	%
Central	1,023,219	93.20%	74,394	6.80%	1,795,277	1,097,613	61.10%
Coast	64,432	19.30%	269,655	80.70%	967,518	334,087	34.50%
Eastern	485,282	49.50%	494,624	50.50%	1,977,480	979,906	49.60%
Nairobi	161,344	43.20%	212,070	56.80%	961,295	373,414	38.80%
North Eastern	12,401	24.10%	39,028	75.90%	237,321	51,429	21.70%
Nyanza	114,077	12.20%	822,188	87.80%	1,664,401	936,265	56.30%
Rift Valley	395,943	24.50%	1,218,805	75.50%	2,668,981	1,614,748	60.50%
Western	240,582	40.20%	358,343	59.80%	1,322,604	598,925	45.30%
Total	2,532,918	41.70%	3,548,477	58.30%	11,594,877	6,081,395	52.40%
Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya

 

	Provincial Results of 2007 Presidential Elections
Province	Kibaki	%	Odinga	%	Kalonzo	%	Others	%	Votes Cast	Registered Voters
NAIROBI	313,478	47.70%	288,922	44.00%	52,974	8.10%	1,845	0.30%	657,219	1,275,021
COAST	197,354	33.10%	353,773	59.40%	38,881	6.50%	5,909	1.00%	595,917	1,045,629
NORTH  EASTERN	97,263	50.30%	91,440	47.20%	4,498	2.30%	333	0.20%	193,534	315,664
EASTERN	835,481	50.40%	83,575	5.00%	726,782	43.80%	13,229	0.80%	1,659,067	2,516,998
CENTRAL	1,741,086	97.00%	34,046	1.90%	11,702	0.70%	7,215	0.40%	1,794,049	2,186,315
RIFT VALLEY	818,445	33.50%	1,580,880	64.60%	33,863	1.40%	12,300	0.50%	2,445,488	3,358,285
WESTERN	312,300	32.20%	639,246	65.90%	6,729	0.70%	11,417	1.20%	969,692	1,564,854
NYANZA	262,627	16.90%	1,280,978	82.40%	4,470	0.30%	7,160	0.50%	1,555,235	2,041,686
TOTALS	4,578,034	46.40%	4,352,860	44.10%	879,899	8.90%	59,408	0.60%	9,870,201	14,304,452
Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya