Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Re: [KOL] Post referendum politics towards 2012 ( Hon.Rutos Candidature)


Kibaya,
you have said it better than ever.
what Mwangi is propagating is nothing but HATE SPEECH.
we shouldnt hate our brothers and sisters just because they have divergent views. after all if KATIBA passes, as i said before we will al work hard towards ensuring its implemented as we shall all as kenyans be bound by the same law .
period.
On Tue, Jul 27, 2010 at 9:17 PM, Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com> wrote:
Evans,
These politicians are shameless. After August 4th, Ruto will talk and act as if he sired the new constitution. His followers and church folks will forget that they played a central role in trying to commit an abortion on the new constitution. Some will even try to cause SID (Sudden infant death) to the new katiba but they will never succeed. The new katiba will be for those who supported it and also for the abortionists such as Ruto, and Moi.

On Tue, Jul 27, 2010 at 2:03 PM, Evans MACHERA <evansmachera@yahoo.com> wrote:


Dear all,

While some leaders took too long to take a NO/YES position that saw some doing letters and adverts on where they belong,Hon.Ruto steadfastly took a NO stand and has been campaigning against the draft law with gusto to the letter.

Given that we are heading towards the new law,its almost apparent that Hon.Ruto will make to the presidential ballot box come 2012.

If that is the case,how is he likely to support,defend and protect a law whose content he has preached against around the country!

What is likely to be his turning point,or how will he metamorphosis to empress the same as a candidate and more so as a president given the electorates mandate that will see him take the oath of office!


OATH OR SOLEMN AFFIRMATION OF ALLEGIANCE OF THE
PRESIDENT/ACTING PRESIDENT AND THE DEPUTY PRESIDENT

I, ……………. , in full realization of the high calling I assume as
President/Acting President/ Deputy President of the Republic of Kenya, do
swear/solemnly affirm that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to the
Republic of Kenya; that I will obey, preserve, protect and defend this
Constitution of Kenya, as by law established, and all other laws of the
Republic; and that I will protect and uphold the sovereignty, integrity and
dignity of the people of Kenya. (In the case of an oath–– So help me God.)

OATH OR SOLEMN AFFIRMATION OF DUE EXECUTION OF
OFFICE FOR THE PRESIDENT/ACTING PRESIDENT
I, ……………… , swear/solemnly affirm that I will truly and diligently serve
the people and the Republic of Kenya in the office of the President/ Acting
President of the Republic of Kenya; that I will diligently discharge my duties
and perform my functions in the Office of President/Acting President of the
Republic of Kenya; and I will do justice to all in accordance with this
Constitution, as by law established, and the laws of Kenya, without fear, favour,
affection or ill-will. (In the case of an oath–– So help me God.)

Evans MACHERA
Towards a new law.

--- On Tue, 7/27/10, Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com> wrote:

From: Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [KOL] Post referendum politics towards 2012
To: kenyaonline@yahoogroups.com
Cc: "Africa-Oped" <africa-oped@yahoogroups.com>, "Kenya Forum" <youngprofessionals_ke@googlegroups.com>, "KCA" <kca_main@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Tuesday, July 27, 2010, 10:34 AM

 

Odhis,
Tell CMW to also consider the fact that in 2012, the new constitution will be in play. No single candidate will garner 50% plus kitu in the first round. All those wannabe candidates will be fighting for No. 1 and 2. The rest (they will be many) will then bring the votes to the table to negotiate for election proper. Enemies will become friends. Ruto is playing 2012 game too and this referendum, regardless of outcome will benefit Ruto. He will have his base to count on and is using it to build himself. He will be a major player in 1212 but I dont see him coming second or first, he doesnt have to but even Raila will be wooing him after the mini election. Other minnows will have numbers to bargain if, others nothing. Unfortunately, other than the 2 seat, there wont be anything to promise, not even cabinet posts.
 
Tell your friend that he also forgot the role to be played by Ocampo. He will disorganize these fellows and so new alliances will emerge and may be new tribal heads to replace those who will be carted to the Hague. So the referendum is important but Ocampo will be more important. And for the final elections, those tribal votes will be important since you will support one of the two candidates upende usipende. It will be interesting.

On Tue, Jul 27, 2010 at 1:12 PM, Dickens Odhiambo <Dickens.Odhiambo@ gmsi.com> wrote:
 

 
-----Original Message-----
From: CMW [mailto:nassehw@gmail. com]
Sent: Tuesday, July 27, 2010 1:02 PM
To: Dickens Odhiambo
Subject: Re: Post referendum politics towards 2012


Good points, good points. I think though Ruto is aiming from 2017.  Everything he has done since the previous election has been geared toward solidifying his base, not building a national following. 
As for Raila he may be a lousy administrator, but the man is a proven campaigner.  The next election is a purely presidential system and Raila is going to be in the driving seat.   Since the last election, Raila has gone with the Moi strategy; he is not wooing tribal blocks, he is going directly to the grassroots. His calculation is he will lose in Central, Eastern and Rift Valley; but, he intends to keep the margins of those loses minimal.  This is the reason he has tackled issues that burn bridges with elites from various tribes, but earn him admiration nationally.  If you look at the other three candidates, none of them can go it alone and expect to win a sufficient number of votes in other provinces unless they make a deal. If Ruto goes it alone, Raila will get more votes than him in Nyanza,  Central, Nairobi, Western, Coast and Eastern. If Uhuru goes it alone, Raila will get more votes than him in  North Eastern, Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and fight him in Eastern.
Without a prime-minister position, there is no way the three make a deal.

My sense is Kenyans are looking for someone outside the norm. Look at the excitement with which they greeted Karua until they realized she is still a wolf. Or Wamalwa,  until they realized he is not offering any concrete message apart from "elect me, I'm young."

Wafula
On Tue, Jul 27, 2010 at 12:19 PM, Dickens Odhiambo <Dickens.Odhiambo@ gmsi.com> wrote:



Peni Mbili thoughts of Post referendum politics towards 2012
<http://kenya. rcbowen.com/ talk/viewtopic. php?id=149177>
Analysis of the Post referendum politics towards 2012, I salute Kibaki &
Raila for their marriage of convenience in trying to give Kenyans a new
constitution the and possibly leave a legacy be it bad or good.
Possible coalition and outcomes are:
1. Raila might go it alone with support from Western as a coalition partner
(but without greater Bukusu and Gusii) but NADA kaput!
2. GEMA, have all the machinery necessary to win, all they need is to lure
Ruto with a position of VP if the draft constitution goes through and will
be done deal.
3. Kalonzo, his political career is in a verge of collapse, the only way
forward for him is his opportunistic tactics, he faces stiff competition
from Ngilu and John Harun Mwau.
4. Rutto, if he decides to go alone, he will complicate the whole equation
and the politics of Kenya, should he decide and a lone race, GEMA will joy
ride to the house on the hill in the simplest manner ever experienced in
Kenyan history (divide and rule) going it alone means that he will have a
overwhelming numbers from the Rift Valley now that he has succeeded in
consolidating the vote in preparation for 2012, some from the Old KANU zones
of N.E and Balala factor in the Coastal area now that he enjoys a good
relationship with him, he might be the 2nd or 3rd after GEMA and or RAILA.
4. If and in case the old Moi students decide to come together (Uhuru ,
Kalonzo & Ruto sharing the powers in the order; President, Prime Minister &
VP) this will make a winning coalition and no doubt humiliate Raila and
bring his political career in Kenya to a end.
Last edited by mjomba (Today 03:08:21)






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