Friday, July 30, 2010

RE: Confidential Referendum Projections

Okiya,
It is rumoured that you oppose the Darft Constitution because you have been using constitution making as your milk cow and you fear if the consitution is passed then you will have no milk from 4th August. Is it true?

--- On Thu, 29/7/10, Eric Wabwaya Mburi <ewabwaya@hotmail.com> wrote:

From: Eric Wabwaya Mburi <ewabwaya@hotmail.com>
Subject: RE: Confidential Referendum Projections
To: "Agola Atieno" <mlalahoi@googlegroups.com>
Date: Thursday, 29 July, 2010, 21:08


Okiya enda ujifunge karibu na Vigilance house na nyororo.thats wat yu good at.Bure kabisa bure kabisa

Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 15:38:53 -0400
Subject: Re: Confidential Referendum Projections
From: kjmwangi@gmail.com
To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com

I meant in pieces:)

On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 3:37 PM, Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com> wrote:
:)..Let him do his maths in peace:)


On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 2:53 PM, Brian Kipkorir <onyibon@gmail.com> wrote:
Okiya i think you are very idle. Bure kabisa.

On 7/29/10, Okiya Omtatah Okoiti <omtatah@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>   2005 Referendum 2007 Presidential Elections 2010 Referendum Projections
> based
> on Voter Patterns
>
> Province Registered   Voters Turnout   % Registered Voters Turnout %
> Registered
> Voters Assuming 60% Turnout YES:NO RATIO YES NO
>
> NAIROBI 961,295 38.80% 1,275,021 51.50% 1,306,345      783,807  60:40
> 470,284
> 313,523
>
> COAST 967,518 34.50% 1,045,629 57.00% 992,323      595,394  60:40 357,236
> 238,158
>
> NORTH EASTERN 237,321 21.70% 315,664 61.30% 232,099      139,259  70:30
> 97,482
> 41,778
>
> EASTERN 1,977,480 49.60% 2,516,998 65.90% 2,028,864   1,217,318  30:70
> 365,196
> 852,123
>
> CENTRAL 1,795,277 61.10% 2,186,315 82.10% 1,952,537   1,171,522  60:40
> 702,913
> 468,609
>
> RIFT VALLEY 2,668,981 60.50% 3,358,285 72.80% 3,074,736   1,844,842  20:80
> 368,968 1,475,873
>
> WESTERN 1,322,604 45.30% 1,564,854 62.00% 1,357,802      814,681  70:30
> 570,277
> 244,404
>
> NYANZA 1,664,401 56.30% 2,041,686 76.20% 1,711,745   1,027,047  80:20
> 821,638
> 205,409
>
> TOTALS 11,594,877 52.40% 14,304,452 69.00% 12,656,451 7,593,871  49.4:50.6
> 3,753,994 3,839,877
>
> Confidential and for Authorised Internal Use   Only
> Best for YES: 49.4%     Worst for NO: 50.6%
> HISTORICAL DATA USED:
> 2005 Referendum Results
> Option Number of votes Percentage  There were 11,595,201   registered voters
> in
> 2005
>
> Yes 2,578,831 41.88%  6,158,072 registered   voters cast their votes
> No 3,579,241 58.12%  5,437,129 voters did not   vote in 2005.
> Total 6,158,072 100.00%  This was equivalent to   53% voting and 47% not
> voting
>
> Province Yes Votes Yes % No Votes No % Registered Voters Turnout %
> Central 1,023,219 93.20% 74,394 6.80% 1,795,277 1,097,613 61.10%
> Coast 64,432 19.30% 269,655 80.70% 967,518 334,087 34.50%
> Eastern 485,282 49.50% 494,624 50.50% 1,977,480 979,906 49.60%
> Nairobi 161,344 43.20% 212,070 56.80% 961,295 373,414 38.80%
> North Eastern 12,401 24.10% 39,028 75.90% 237,321 51,429 21.70%
> Nyanza 114,077 12.20% 822,188 87.80% 1,664,401 936,265 56.30%
> Rift Valley 395,943 24.50% 1,218,805 75.50% 2,668,981 1,614,748 60.50%
> Western 240,582 40.20% 358,343 59.80% 1,322,604 598,925 45.30%
> Total 2,532,918 41.70% 3,548,477 58.30% 11,594,877 6,081,395 52.40%
> Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya
>
>
>
>  Provincial Results of   2007 Presidential Elections
> Province Kibaki % Odinga % Kalonzo % Others % Votes Cast Registered Voters
> NAIROBI 313,478 47.70% 288,922 44.00% 52,974 8.10% 1,845 0.30% 657,219
> 1,275,021
>
> COAST 197,354 33.10% 353,773 59.40% 38,881 6.50% 5,909 1.00% 595,917
> 1,045,629
> NORTH  EASTERN 97,263 50.30% 91,440 47.20% 4,498 2.30% 333 0.20% 193,534
> 315,664
>
> EASTERN 835,481 50.40% 83,575 5.00% 726,782 43.80% 13,229 0.80% 1,659,067
> 2,516,998
>
> CENTRAL 1,741,086 97.00% 34,046 1.90% 11,702 0.70% 7,215 0.40% 1,794,049
> 2,186,315
>
> RIFT VALLEY 818,445 33.50% 1,580,880 64.60% 33,863 1.40% 12,300 0.50%
> 2,445,488
> 3,358,285
>
> WESTERN 312,300 32.20% 639,246 65.90% 6,729 0.70% 11,417 1.20% 969,692
> 1,564,854
>
> NYANZA 262,627 16.90% 1,280,978 82.40% 4,470 0.30% 7,160 0.50% 1,555,235
> 2,041,686
>
> TOTALS 4,578,034 46.40% 4,352,860 44.10% 879,899 8.90% 59,408 0.60%
> 9,870,201
> 14,304,452
>
> Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya
>
>
>
>
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