RE: Confidential Referendum Projections

 These" Confidential" projections might be mere propaganda to arm twist  and play  reverse psychology on the Yes Side. The good thing is that the truth will only be known on Thursday next week after the votes are counted. It is too early to celebrate as elections all over can be unpredictable.  Besides Nobody has ruled out rigging by both sides typical of Kenyan Elections!  Perhaps its best for Yes and No to use the remaining days and win the undecided voters and bridge any  margins existing. ..

Karegwa

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Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2010 06:21:25 -0700
From: orinaonka@yahoo.com
Subject: Re: Confidential Referendum Projections
To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com

I feel very bad. Because Omtatah has been a true friend of mine and now he has chosen to totally show something about him I never noticed even sensed as we worked together for justice in Kenya. These figures, should have been posted by some other lunatic not Omtata. Why does Omtata chose to lower himself to these levels? I saw him with Dr. Namwamba challenging Pollsters at  a Nairobi hotel but that I could swallow. Now this? I am very sad. Omtatah knows  I am sad. Cyprian Nyamwamu --- On Fri, 7/30/10, otieno sungu <sunoti@yahoo.com> wrote: From: otieno sungu <sunoti@yahoo.com> Subject: Re: Confidential Referendum Projections To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com Cc: "Kuria-Mwangi" <kjmwangi@gmail.com> Date: Friday, July 30, 2010, 12:38 PM Kuria,   Whoever did thos projected on Presidential votes based on  Railas and Kibakis votes for 2007. Now, if these figures are based on how people voted for the 2, isn't it foolhardy to use the same projections of KATIBA on which the two are on the same side?   Secondly, who are they "competing" against who was also on the ballot in 2007 for which they project the NO vote? Even Kalonzos figures go into the basket if Prsidential voting patern is the indicator here.   However, this idle mind forgot that KATIBA is the issue here, not Kibaki or Raila, tells you how idle minds can be cluoded to see things clearly.   Most of those who were fronting Chungwa  are now with most of those who fronted banana  The figures for orange and banana for 2005 referendum shoud thus give the greatest boost for GREENS.   I thank this person who sent Omtatah to post these figures for he just confirmed that KATIBA imepita, going by 2005 referendum and 2007 elections.   Simple maths, add, orange and banana votes for 2005 plus Kibaki's and Raila's kura for 2007 and we are home and dry.!!!!   Otieno Sungu From: Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com> To: mlalahoi@googlegroups.com Sent: Fri, July 30, 2010 1:34:57 AM Subject: Re: Confidential Referendum Projections Bwana Omtatah, If the figures are confidential, why do you have them? The person who cooked them did a shoddy job. You can see RV figures are cooked to make sound as if Ruto has 80% of the support. You or whoever cooked them forgot that Eldoret North does not constituite 80% of RV votes. So other areas outside Rutoland are red? When did NO side get average of 40-80% in various areas?   If your side get that close, even if YES wins, then those Opinion Pollsters will close shop. For now I can only wish you good dreams. On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 5:05 AM, Okiya Omtatah Okoiti <omtatah@yahoo.com> wrote: 2005 Referendum 2007 Presidential Elections 2010 Referendum Projections based on Voter Patterns   Province Registered Voters Turnout % Registered Voters Turnout % Registered Voters Assuming 60% Turnout YES:NO RATIO YES NO   NAIROBI 961,295 38.80% 1,275,021 51.50% 1,306,345      783,807 60:40 470,284 313,523   COAST 967,518 34.50% 1,045,629 57.00% 992,323      595,394 60:40 357,236 238,158 NORTH EASTERN 237,321 21.70% 315,664 61.30% 232,099      139,259 70:30 97,482 41,778 EASTERN 1,977,480 49.60% 2,516,998 65.90% 2,028,864   1,217,318 30:70 365,196 852,123 CENTRAL 1,795,277 61.10% 2,186,315 82.10% 1,952,537   1,171,522 60:40 702,913 468,609 RIFT VALLEY 2,668,981 60.50% 3,358,285 72.80% 3,074,736   1,844,842 20:80 368,968 1,475,873 WESTERN 1,322,604 45.30% 1,564,854 62.00% 1,357,802      814,681 70:30 570,277 244,404 NYANZA 1,664,401 56.30% 2,041,686 76.20% 1,711,745   1,027,047 80:20 821,638 205,409 TOTALS 11,594,877 52.40% 14,304,452 69.00% 12,656,451 7,593,871  49.4:50.6 3,753,994 3,839,877 Confidential and for Authorised Internal Use Only Best for YES: 49.4%     Worst for NO: 50.6% HISTORICAL DATA USED: 2005 Referendum Results Option Number of votes Percentage There were 11,595,201 registered voters in 2005 Yes 2,578,831 41.88% 6,158,072 registered voters cast their votes No 3,579,241 58.12% 5,437,129 voters did not vote in 2005. Total 6,158,072 100.00% This was equivalent to 53% voting and 47% not voting Province Yes Votes Yes % No Votes No % Registered Voters Turnout % Central 1,023,219 93.20% 74,394 6.80% 1,795,277 1,097,613 61.10% Coast 64,432 19.30% 269,655 80.70% 967,518 334,087 34.50% Eastern 485,282 49.50% 494,624 50.50% 1,977,480 979,906 49.60% Nairobi 161,344 43.20% 212,070 56.80% 961,295 373,414 38.80% North Eastern 12,401 24.10% 39,028 75.90% 237,321 51,429 21.70% Nyanza 114,077 12.20% 822,188 87.80% 1,664,401 936,265 56.30% Rift Valley 395,943 24.50% 1,218,805 75.50% 2,668,981 1,614,748 60.50% Western 240,582 40.20% 358,343 59.80% 1,322,604 598,925 45.30% Total 2,532,918 41.70% 3,548,477 58.30% 11,594,877 6,081,395 52.40% Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya   Provincial Results of 2007 Presidential Elections Province Kibaki % Odinga % Kalonzo % Others % Votes Cast Registered Voters NAIROBI 313,478 47.70% 288,922 44.00% 52,974 8.10% 1,845 0.30% 657,219 1,275,021 COAST 197,354 33.10% 353,773 59.40% 38,881 6.50% 5,909 1.00% 595,917 1,045,629 NORTH  EASTERN 97,263 50.30% 91,440 47.20% 4,498 2.30% 333 0.20% 193,534 315,664 EASTERN 835,481 50.40% 83,575 5.00% 726,782 43.80% 13,229 0.80% 1,659,067 2,516,998 CENTRAL 1,741,086 97.00% 34,046 1.90% 11,702 0.70% 7,215 0.40% 1,794,049 2,186,315 RIFT VALLEY 818,445 33.50% 1,580,880 64.60% 33,863 1.40% 12,300 0.50% 2,445,488 3,358,285 WESTERN 312,300 32.20% 639,246 65.90% 6,729 0.70% 11,417 1.20% 969,692 1,564,854 NYANZA 262,627 16.90% 1,280,978 82.40% 4,470 0.30% 7,160 0.50% 1,555,235 2,041,686 TOTALS 4,578,034 46.40% 4,352,860 44.10% 879,899 8.90% 59,408 0.60% 9,870,201 14,304,452 Source: Electoral Commission of Kenya   -- MANY JOB VACANCIES: http://bit.ly/bROydQ   TECHMTAA BLOG: http://bit.ly/cmRFZR   To unsubscribe from this group, Email mlalahoi+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com   TO ADVERTISE HERE PLEASE M-PESA KSH 1,000 for each advert or Ksh 5,000 for monthly subscription to +254 726 034 530 -- http://www.kuria-mwangi.blogspot.com http://www.facebook.com/kjmwangi -- MANY JOB VACANCIES: http://bit.ly/bROydQ   TECHMTAA BLOG: http://bit.ly/cmRFZR   To unsubscribe from this group, Email mlalahoi+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com   TO ADVERTISE HERE PLEASE M-PESA KSH 1,000 for each advert or Ksh 5,000 for monthly subscription to +254 726 034 530 -- MANY JOB VACANCIES: http://bit.ly/bROydQ   TECHMTAA BLOG: http://bit.ly/cmRFZR   To unsubscribe from this group, Email mlalahoi+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com   TO ADVERTISE HERE PLEASE M-PESA KSH 1,000 for each advert or Ksh 5,000 for monthly subscription to +254 726 034 530

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