Re: Poll: 66 per cent of Kenyans will vote in favour

Thanks Kilonzo, may it be like that.

On another note, those with spoiled votes or abstention will not count. It will be only be 67% to 33% since the percentage will be on those validly cast votes. So if the NO is stuck on 17%, we will hit 83%.

On Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 10:39 AM, peter kilonzo <mwikya2009@gmail.com> wrote:

Mwangi,

By the way the greens will get 67%,Reds 17% ,16% spoilt/abstrain
My self claimed pollster had projected.Will Omtatahs see the light of the day.

 

Peter

On Fri, Jul 30, 2010 at 2:35 PM, Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@gmail.com> wrote:

Omtatah,

We still want to know where you got those figures. This is the latest scientific (as oposed to vodoo poll you forwarded) poll to be released and

was conducted last week. With 66% for YES and 20% for the NO, there is no way NO can win unless the church, Moi and Ruto

are busy working with witchdoctors and the devil to turn tables. God is great all the times and so I believe the vodoo work will

come to zero. We are expecting to get at least 65% but even 51% is good enough for us since that will see the new Katiba come

into effect Moi na nyinyi mpende msipende.

The Strategic Research survey shows that 66 per cent of Kenyans will vote in favour of the document while 20 per cent will reject it.

 

http://www.nation.co.ke/Referendum/Yes%20maintains%20Kenya%20referendum%20lead-%20poll/-/926046/967562/-/10td7fgz/-/index.html

Kuria

 

Bwana Omtatah,
If the figures are confidential, why do you have them? The person who cooked them did a shoddy job. You can see RV figures are cooked
to make sound as if Ruto has 80% of the support. You or whoever cooked them forgot that Eldoret North does not constituite 80% of RV votes. So

other areas outside Rutoland are red? When did NO side get average of 40-80% in various areas?

 

If your side get that close, even if YES wins, then those Opinion Pollsters will close shop. For now I can only wish you good dreams.

On Thu, Jul 29, 2010 at 5:05 AM, Okiya Omtatah Okoiti <omtatah@yahoo.com> wrote:

	2005 Referendum		2007 Presidential Elections		2010 Referendum Projections based on Voter Patterns
Province	Registered Voters	Turnout %	Registered Voters	Turnout %	Registered Voters	Assuming 60% Turnout	YES:NO RATIO	YES	NO
NAIROBI	961,295	38.80%	1,275,021	51.50%	1,306,345	783,807	60:40	470,284	313,523
COAST	967,518	34.50%	1,045,629	57.00%	992,323	595,394	60:40	357,236	238,158
NORTH EASTERN	237,321	21.70%	315,664	61.30%	232,099	139,259	70:30	97,482	41,778
EASTERN	1,977,480	49.60%	2,516,998	65.90%	2,028,864	1,217,318	30:70	365,196	852,123
CENTRAL	1,795,277	61.10%	2,186,315	82.10%	1,952,537	1,171,522	60:40	702,913	468,609
RIFT VALLEY	2,668,981	60.50%	3,358,285	72.80%	3,074,736	1,844,842	20:80	368,968	1,475,873
WESTERN	1,322,604	45.30%	1,564,854	62.00%	1,357,802	814,681	70:30	570,277	244,404
NYANZA	1,664,401	56.30%	2,041,686	76.20%	1,711,745	1,027,047	80:20	821,638	205,409
TOTALS	11,594,877	52.40%	14,304,452	69.00%	12,656,451	7,593,871	49.4:50.6	3,753,994	3,839,877
Confidential and for Authorised Internal Use Only

Best for YES: 49.4%     Worst for NO: 50.6%

HISTORICAL DATA USED:

2005 Referendum Results
Option	Number of votes	Percentage		There were 11,595,201 registered voters in 2005
Yes	2,578,831	41.88%		6,158,072 registered voters cast their votes
No	3,579,241	58.12%		5,437,129 voters did not vote in 2005.
Total	6,158,072	100.00%		This was equivalent to 53% voting and 47% not voting
Province	Yes Votes	Yes %	No Votes	No %	Registered Voters	Turnout	%
Central	1,023,219	93.20%	74,394	6.80%	1,795,277	1,097,613	61.10%
Coast	64,432	19.30%	269,655	80.70%	967,518	334,087	34.50%
Eastern	485,282	49.50%	494,624	50.50%	1,977,480	979,906	49.60%
Nairobi	161,344	43.20%	212,070	56.80%	961,295	373,414	38.80%
North Eastern	12,401	24.10%	39,028	75.90%	237,321	51,429	21.70%
Nyanza	114,077	12.20%	822,188	87.80%	1,664,401	936,265	56.30%
Rift Valley	395,943	24.50%	1,218,805	75.50%	2,668,981	1,614,748

...

[Message clipped]  

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